The Northern part of the Bay of Bengal along the coast of Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to storm surges and coastal flooding generated by tropical cyclone activity. The most recent severe cyclone hit Bangladesh in April 1991 producing a surge height of more than 6 meters along a coastal stretch of 240 km, inundating large coastal areas and offshore islands. The loss of life was estimated to 140,000.
To improve the forecast accuracy and basis for more efficient flood warning and management strategies new and more advanced tools for operational storm surge and flood forecasting in coastal areas have been developed.
The improved system consists of the following elements:
Cyclone forecast system, including statistical forecast models for prediction of the cyclone track and intensity
storm surge and flood modelling system
Data assimilation system, including a procedure for updating cyclone track and intensity using surface observations of wind and pressure, and a procedure for updating the storm surge model using water level measurements
Uncertainty and risk analysis system for producing confidence limits on the storm surge and flood forecasts